Commercial Defaults Coming Fast and Furious

According to this Bloomberg.com article, Maguire to Surrender Buildings, No Bankruptcy Planned, Maguire Properties Inc., the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles, will give seven office buildings back to the lenders. The company has already given one of those buildings back to the lenders. They plan on giving the other six buildings back soon. According to the article the company told lenders "it will no longer continue to fund the cash shortfall" on the mortgages for the six buildings. Of the seven office buildings, two are already in default. The CEO of Maguire said that the company is not considering bankruptcy. According to the article, Maguire's decision is a sign that landlords in Southern California’s overleveraged office market can no longer make payments and may be forced to abandon properties.

In short, the real estate market is still in for a world of hurt in formerly fast growth areas such as CA, NV, AZ and FL. Rising commercial loan defaults will lead to large numbers of short sales and foreclosures. The coming ARM resets will cause even more problems. Together, they will wreak more havoc on the real estate markets across the US over the next 12-24 months. Only after these issues play out will we hit a true real estate bottom.

Great Blog Post: The Ridiculous Loan Modification Solution

According to this BrokerAgentSocial article, The Ridiculous Loan Modification Solution, Banks and Mortgage Lenders have no real incentive to offer struggling home owners a loan modification since a Barclay's study showed that "current loans receiving rate modifications will experience a 62% redefault rate and delinquent loans receiving rate modifications will experience an 83% redefault rate." The reasons that these loans will still go bad are simple:

1. The home owners were shaky from the beginning and so they are not the most financially responsible people to start with.
2. Their homes are worth far less than the their mortgage balances. Eventually these people realize that they will never "get even" and just give up by letting the go into foreclosure.

The result of all of this is that short sales are rely best solution for the lenders and the homeowners since it is statistically proven that loan modifications will not work. Regardless of what the all knowing Obama says, keeping people in their homes is not the answer to our real estate crisis. Letting the market hit bottom as soon as possible is.

98 of the Top 100 Metropolitan Areas Lost Jobs Over the Period of June 2008 to June 2009

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, 98 of top 100 metros suffer job losses, almost all major metropolitan areas lost jobs over the period of June 2008 to June 2009. New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago where the hardest hit with over 200,000 jobs lost. Atlanta, Detroit and Phoenix each lost over 100,000 jobs. The Nashville Metropolitan area (generally Nashville, Davidson County, Williamson County (Franklin and Brentwood) and Rutherford County (Murfreesboro and Smyrna) was in the middle of the pack with 32,800 jobs lost. All of this means more unemployed people with a result of more delinquencies, foreclosures (REO's) and short sales. the effect of this will be continued dampening of the real estate market.

Mortgage Servicers Have Incentives Not to Modify Loans, Not to Approve Short Sales and Not to Foreclose (At Least for Quite a While)

According to this New York Times article, Lucrative Fees May Deter Efforts to Alter Loans, mortgage servicers make more money by charging late fees, legal fees, insurance fees, etc. than they would by offering the home owner a loan modification (i.e such as Making Home Affordable), approving a short sale or even foreclosing. Therefore, many homes will sit in limbo for many months even when the current owner is several months behind in their mortgage payments, but could pay a lower payment, or even if there is a buyer willing to buy the home. Apparently, the longer the loan is delinquent the more the mortgage servicer stands to profit. Of course, during this time the home is likely being neglected, which will ultimately result in the home being worth less when it ultimately sells. Since the mortgage servicer does not own the loan they are not losing any money and do not really care. According to the article, in June 2009 nearly 3,000,000 homeowners were 90+ days delinquent on their home loans (up from 1,800,000 in June 2008), but the number of homes taken back by the banks decreased to 245,000 (from 333,000 in June 2008). This goes hand in hand with what I wrote in earlier blog posts, More Evidence Banks Are Holding Back Foreclosures and Government Meddling and Banks' Incompetence Will Cause More Home Price Declines, where I stated that banks are not openly selling anywhere near number of true foreclosures. The number of seriously delinquent loans continues to grow. These loans should be modified or the properties should be sold via short sale or foreclosure. Instead, the mortgage servicers are just letting them fester. Of course, they will eventually have to be dealt with on way or the other. Most likely this will be via foreclosure after the owners just give up and move on.

Middle Tennessee - Rutherford County TN - Residential Home Sales Market Statistics: A Comparison of Normal Sales versus Short Sales and Foreclosures in July 2009

According to the data I researched in the Middle Tennessee MLS (RealTracs) as of 7/29/2009, the following Market Statistics paint a troubling picture for the 3 main cities/towns in Rutherford County Tennessee:

Active Listings

• Murfreesboro TN -110 out of 1,324 Active Listings (or 8.31%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
  
• Smyrna TN - 50 out of 406 Active Listings (or 12.32%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• LaVergne (or La Vergne) TN - 61 out of 297 Active Listings (or 20.54%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.

Pending Sales

• Murfreesboro TN -31 out of 231 Pending Sales (or 13.42%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
  
• Smyrna TN - 10 out of 52 Pending Sales (or 19.23%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• LaVergne (or La Vergne) TN - 17 out of 50 Pending Sales (or 34.00%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.

As you can see in all the towns above the % of Short Sales and Foreclosures is high for both Active Listings and Pending Sales. However, the worst part is that when looked at as a percentage of Pending Sales the Short Sale and Foreclosure share of Pending Sales is relatively high when compared to percentage of Active Listings to the tune of 50%+. This means that regular (i.e. non Short Sale and Foreclosure) listings will have a difficult time selling as a large share of Pending Sales are lower priced distressed properties.