New Home Sales Drop in September 2009

New Home Sales Drop in September 2009

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, New home sales drop unexpectedly, "New home sales took a surprising turn downward last month, according to newly released government figures." According to the article, on 10/28/2009, the US Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes declined by 3.6 percent in September 2009 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 402,000 new home sale units.

The article stated the following new home sales figures:

• The number of unsold new homes fell for the 29th straight month to 251,000.
• The supply of new homes at current sales rates remained unchanged at 7.5 months.
• The median time it takes to sell a home remained unchanged at 13 months.
• The number of completed new homes for sale fell to 109,000 units.

The article quotes Patrick Newport, a U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, as saying "September’s decline is hard to explain."  According to the article, Newport offered the following possible explanations for the "unexpected" decline in new home sales:

• "One possibility is that inventory has fallen so low that builders do not have enough completed homes on hand, and are losing sales to the market of existing homes."
• "A second possibility is that September's reading was simply an aberration, just like the August drop in existing home sales was an aberration, and that sales will take off in October."
• His final possible explanation is that due to the deadline for the first-time homebuyer tax credit nearing on 11/30/2009, would be new home buyers do not think they will be able to close in time and so these buyers decided not to buy.

I have to say that I do not find this "unexpected" decline in new home sales to be unexpected at all. The fundamentals of the real estate and housing market are poor. Unemployment is over 10%, foreclosures and other distress sales are at record levels, banks are failing in record numbers (in terms of dollar losses). The only things keeping home prices (including new construction) at current levels (i.e. preventing home prices from falling to sustainable levels) is artificial government intervention in the form of:

• The $8,000 home buyer tax credits.
• Expanded FHA and other government backed mortgage loans (see my blog post Real Estate Recovery or More Problems (Short Sales and Foreclosures)?, which shows that "of all the home sales that have occurred in 2009, 59% of all buyers relied on low down payment government financing programs.").
• Extraordinary government purchases of mortgage loans (95%+ of all mortgage loans are purchased by the government owned agencies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae - see Recent Developments in Mortgage Finance).

With the $8,000 tax credit coming to an end soon (even with the proposed extension it will only last for an additional 8 months), continued unemployment, record foreclosures and a pending pull back in FHA and other government loans due to the record default rates (see my blog post FHA in Deep Trouble: Default Rates Skyrocketing) new home sales should decline.  Only the government nonsensical intervention is fooling buyers into thinking things are OK.

If you are a home buyer or real estate investor in Middle Tennessee who is interested in purchasing new construction (new single home, new townhouse or new condo), do not be fooled by builder hype and marketing. If you want a great deal on new construction, you will need knowledgeable, aggressive and professional buyer representation. Please contact me, or visit my website Search the Middle Tennessee MLS - Find New Single Homes, New Townhomes and New Condos in Middle TN. I help home buyers in Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN.

On the other hand, if you are a home builder in Middle Tennessee who is in financial trouble due to being unable to pay your mortgage payments, or owe more in mortgage debt than you can sell your newly constructed homes for, or you are already in foreclosure please contact me to discuss selling your new homes via short sales. I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I serve real estate owners, homeowners and investment property owners in Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN. If you do need to short sell your new homes (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home), or you need quick sales due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get New Construction Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Residential Home Sales Market Statistics: A Comparison of Normal Sales versus Short Sales and Foreclosures in August 2009

Middle Tennessee Residential Property Foreclosure Activity Report
Residential Real Estate Market Sales Activity - Foreclosures, Pre-foreclosures and Short Sales Compared to Regular Listings
Counties & Cities/Towns Covered:
Rutherford County Tennessee: Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN and La Vergne TN (LaVergne TN)
Williamson County Tennessee: Brentwood TN and Franklin TN
Month & Year	August 2009
Start Date	8/1/2009
End Date	8/31/2009
City/Town	Active Listings - Total	Active Listings - % Foreclosures & Short Sales	Pending Sales - % Foreclosures & Short Sales	Months of Residential Inventory Based on Pending Sales Rate
Murfreesboro	1,322	8.25%	13.22%	5.46
Smyrna	389	13.11%	18.33%	6.48
La Vergne	291	20.27%	47.54%	4.77
Brentwood	645	3.41%	5.56%	11.94
Franklin	1,127	2.75%	3.03%	11.38
Totals & Averages	3,774	7.21%	15.12%	7.31
Notes:
As you can see from the chart above the percentage of Pending Sales that are distress sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) is greater than their representation as a percentage of Active Listings.  This means that these distressed listings are Pending (i.e. selling) at a faster rate then regular listings.

Middle Tennessee - Rutherford County TN - Residential Home Sales Market Statistics: A Comparison of Normal Sales versus Short Sales and Foreclosures in August 2009

According to the data I researched in the Middle Tennessee MLS (RealTracs) as of 9/1/2009, the following Market Statistics paint a troubling picture for the 3 main cities/towns in Rutherford County Tennessee:

Active Listings

• Murfreesboro TN -109 out of 1,322 Active Listings (or 8.25%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• Smyrna TN - 51 out of 389 Active Listings (or 13.11%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• LaVergne (or La Vergne) TN - 59 out of 291 Active Listings (or 20.27%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.

Pending Sales

• Murfreesboro TN -32 out of 242 Pending Sales (or 13.22%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• Smyrna TN - 11 out of 60 Pending Sales (or 18.33%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• LaVergne (or La Vergne) TN - 29 out of 61 Pending Sales (or 47.54%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.

As you can see in all the towns above the % of Short Sales and Foreclosures is high for both Active Listings and Pending Sales. However, the worst part is that when looked at as a percentage of Pending Sales the Short Sale and Foreclosure share of Pending Sales is relatively high when compared to percentage of Active Listings to the tune of 50%+. This means that regular (i.e. non Short Sale and Foreclosure) listings will have a difficult time selling as a large share of Pending Sales are lower priced distressed properties.

For Murfreesboro and Smyrna the % of Pending Sales that are Foreclosures and Short Sales remained about the same as last month, but for La Vergne the % increased from 34% to 47.54%. While the real estate markets in Murfreesboro TN and Smyrna TN are definitely hurting and prices are declining, the La Vergne real estate market is in really bad shape.

Middle Tennessee - Rutherford County TN - Residential Home Sales Market Statistics: A Comparison of Normal Sales versus Short Sales and Foreclosures in July 2009

According to the data I researched in the Middle Tennessee MLS (RealTracs) as of 7/29/2009, the following Market Statistics paint a troubling picture for the 3 main cities/towns in Rutherford County Tennessee:

Active Listings

• Murfreesboro TN -110 out of 1,324 Active Listings (or 8.31%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
  
• Smyrna TN - 50 out of 406 Active Listings (or 12.32%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• LaVergne (or La Vergne) TN - 61 out of 297 Active Listings (or 20.54%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.

Pending Sales

• Murfreesboro TN -31 out of 231 Pending Sales (or 13.42%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
  
• Smyrna TN - 10 out of 52 Pending Sales (or 19.23%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.
• LaVergne (or La Vergne) TN - 17 out of 50 Pending Sales (or 34.00%) are shown as Short Sale or Foreclosure listings.

As you can see in all the towns above the % of Short Sales and Foreclosures is high for both Active Listings and Pending Sales. However, the worst part is that when looked at as a percentage of Pending Sales the Short Sale and Foreclosure share of Pending Sales is relatively high when compared to percentage of Active Listings to the tune of 50%+. This means that regular (i.e. non Short Sale and Foreclosure) listings will have a difficult time selling as a large share of Pending Sales are lower priced distressed properties.