Record Mortgage Delinquencies in 2009 Q3

Record Mortgage Delinquencies in 2009 Q3

According to this TransUnion press release, TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates on Course to Hit Record in 2009 - Deceleration in Rate Climb Continues for Third Consecutive Quarter, in the 3rd quarter of 2009 the rate of mortgage loan delinquencies (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due - a precursor to future foreclosures) increased 58% over the 3rd quarter of 2008 to reach an all time record of 6.25% (up from 3.96%). The rate of mortgage loan delinquencies has now increased for the 11th consecutive quarter. Below are the quarterly rates of increase in the rate of mortgage loan delinquencies in 2009:

• 2009 Q3: approximate 7.57% increase from 2009 Q2.
• 2009 Q2: approximate 11.3% increase from 2009 Q1.
• 2009 Q1: approximate 14% increase from 2008 Q4.

The release goes on to quote FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services division, as saying "The third quarter provided a mixed bag of economic indicators. Many companies' third quarter results are coming in above analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate like the mortgage delinquency rate is still climbing, but has decelerated in the number of monthly job losses during the quarter. While housing starts improved during the first four months of the year, a drop was seen during this quarter and consumer spending still remains anemic or cautious at best. The economic peaks and valleys that we experienced during the quarter will most likely continue into the first half of 2010. While it continues to be a positive sign that the increase in mortgage borrower delinquency rates has slowed for three consecutive quarters, we have to keep things in perspective. Delinquency rates are rising and expected to peak at record levels. Until the housing market can consistently demonstrate several months of home value appreciation and the unemployment rate improves, mortgage delinquency will likely continue to rise. Many of these delinquencies in places like Nevada, California and Florida will result in foreclosures, potentially keeping home values depressed in these areas."

Personally, I think that Mr. Guarrera is being overly optimistic. I see no reason why mortgage loan delinquencies, foreclosures and short sales will be lower in the near future. Job losses, even at a slightly slower pace, are still job losses and people who do not have jobs tend to have a difficult time paying their mortgages. Beyond that, the housing market still has too much new construction and too many "shadow foreclosures" (homes that should be foreclosed due to mortgage non-payment, but are not) that will come onto the market within the next year.

If you are a Middle TN homeowner, property owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in and around Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN).  If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Rise

According to this TransUnion News Release, TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Rise - But Pace Is Slowing, mortgage delinquencies (the % of borrowers that are 60 or more days past due) increased for the 10th straight quarter reaching an all-time high national average of 5.81% for the 2nd quarter of 2009, which is an 11.3% increase over the 1st quarter's national average of 5.22%. The news release goes on to say that the "good news" is that this increase is less than the almost 16% that occurred from the 4th quarter of 2009 to the 1st quarter of 2009. Of course the news release goes on to state that year over year mortgage loan delinquencies increased a staggering 65%.

The Analysis section of the release reads "In its first quarter analysis, TransUnion reported a potential positive sign in mortgage delinquency rate trends. For the first time since the recession began at the end of 2007, the quarter-to-quarter growth rate for national mortgage delinquency showed a decrease," said FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services division. "Now, with the release of second quarter results, we see even more deceleration in mortgage delinquency, an indication that the mortgage market is beginning to stabilize." "There are several complementary economic statistics at the national level to support this guarded optimism, such as the increase in consumer confidence in the second quarter. As for the labor market, although unemployment had continued to rise through the second quarter, July figures for unemployment insurance were lower than expected. Furthermore, recent figures from the government show the unemployment rate actually dipping to 9.4 percent nationally in July. These encouraging economic signs, coupled with a decrease in the rate of mortgage delinquency growth, suggest that we may have seen the worst of the recession. This is particularly noteworthy, in that delinquency statistics are generally lagging indicators of the economic environment," continued Guarrera.

The news release continues by stating that they project that the average mortgage loan delinquency rate will peak at just under 7% by the end of the year. The release goes on by stating However, due to a continued downward trend in housing prices throughout the year as well as high unemployment levels, TransUnion does not see national delinquency rates beginning to fall until the first half of 2010.

Frankly, I find TransUnion's rosy views comical. First, unemployment only fell to 9.4% in July due to nearly 500,000 being removed from the unemployment figures not because they found a job, but because they UNEMPLOYED TOO LONG! Also, there is no way that the mortgage loan delinquencies have turned a corner. With unemployment continuing to rise, increasing numbers of homeowners owing more than their homes are worth (i.e. underwater homeowners) and the wave of ARM mortgages coming due in May 2010 you can absolutely bank on increasing foreclosures and short sales. There is just no way around it. The bottom is something we have yet to see.