Home Prices Headed Down

Home Prices Headed Down


The situation is really sad and infuriating at the same time. I think we can all agree that artificially cheap and easy money (i.e. excessive lending) is what got us into this housing bubble (really a debt/lending bubble) mess to begin with. Therefore, it is incredibly foolish and irresponsible that the federal government (and some states such as CA) is trying to "solve" the problem by artificially propping up demand for homes by pushing the banks to lend more, bailing out banks, guaranteeing the trillions (yes TRILLIONS) in losses that will ultimately come from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, artificially keeping interest rates low by buying over $1.25 trillion in mortgage securities in order to encourage more borrowing, expanding FHA lending dramatically, giving out $8,000 tax credits to first time home buyers, etc. Homes are still overpriced when compared to incomes (see my personal research below). Keeping homes overpriced by artificially allowing more home buyers into the market and encouraging other home buyers to purchase more expensive homes (because the "money is so cheap") is completely irresponsible. Why should Americans be happy about being forced to overpay for homes (due to having to compete with home buyers who should not be home buyers, but only are do to the "government housing stimulus" described above) - that only leaves less money available for saving, investment, non-debt spending, etc. In short, it makes it harder and harder to get by on their current incomes. The American Dream is being killed by excessively high home prices and our all knowing and caring government is causing this!. Let me say this clearly: YOU CANNOT SOLVE A PROBLEM CAUSED BY TOO MUCH DEBT BY TAKING ON MORE DEBT. It is impossible. Instead, the government should just let home prices fall to where they should naturally be given the current economic situation (i.e. a lot lower than they are right now). The housing market is headed down as soon as the foolish government market propping ends.

There is 0% chance that any market is actually "stabilizing" since that implies an actual free market. "Temporarily Artificially Propped" is a more accurate description of our current real estate market. See my blog post from November 2009 (I correctly detailed the current state of the real estate market and accurately predicted what would happen after the tax credit and other government market propping expired): Our Phony Real Estate Market. Also, see my personal research below.

There is no way that home prices have reached a bottom. I analyzed the data in the NAR Home Affordability Index (HAI) from 1/1989 through 6/2010 and found that the Median of the Ratio of Median Home Price to Family Income is 2.92 and the Average of the Ratio of Median Home Price to Family Income is 3.07. Over this same period, the lowest reading occurred in 12/1990 at 2.654. Therefore, it is safe to say that from an historical perspective the typical price of a median home should be about 3 times the median family income. The 6/2010 reading was over 3 at 3.045 (i.e. over 4% higher than the historical median and about the same as the historical average). The problem is that we are not in a “typical” economic environment – we have record foreclosures that seem to persist and 10% unemployment. Given that the lowest reading of 2.654 occurred in 12/1990 and that our current economic conditions are far worse than 12/1990, it is logical to conclude that the Median Home Price to Family Income Ratio should be below 2.654. If the ratio declines to 2.5, home prices will decline by nearly 22%. If the ratio declines to 2.5 and family incomes decline by 5%, home prices will decline by over 28%. Given that personal incomes are declining and that a 2.5 ratio is probably a bit optimistic, I believe it is very feasible that home prices will decline by an additional 30%. As a result, there will be more short sales and foreclosures. See the graph below for a representation of the Ratio of Median Home Price to Family Income Over Time and how it compares to the Average and Median of that same Ratio.




Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Homeowners and Property Owners in Nashville TN and Middle TN. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee homeowner, property owner, condo owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR, Expert and Real Estate Investor. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, condo owners, owners of high end homes and properties (estate homes, luxury homes and executive homes), real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Robertson County TN, Maury County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Spring Hill TN, Gallatin TN, Springfield TN and Mt. Juliet TN). If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR, Real Estate Expert and Real Estate Investor.

Homeowners Spending Their Mortgage Payments?

According to this Diana Olick article on CNBC.com, Mortgage Defaults May Be Driving Consumer Spending, recent studies show that "Americans are now far more likely to pay their other bills first before their mortgage (which is a big turnaround historically speaking)." As a result, the thought is that many of the nearly 7.4 million homeowners who are not paying their mortgage payments (defined as the total number of delinquent first mortgages plus REO properties - see the most recent mortgage performance data current as of March 31, 2010 in the LPS Mortgage Monitor: April 2010 Mortgage Performance Observations published by Lender Processing Services, a provider of mortgage processing services, settlement services, mortgage performance analytics and default solutions) may actually be spending money that would normally go toward making the monthly mortgage payment on consumer goods and services (i.e. food, clothing, car payments, medical expenses, entertainment, travel, etc.). The article mentions that Paul Jackson, publisher of Housingwire.com, wrote an article, For Consumers, Time to Shop (Until the Mortgage Drops), in which "he describes a case study of someone who applied for the government's Home Affordable Modification Program. The person had an $1,880.00 monthly mortgage payment on which they'd defaulted, but said person's monthly bank statement showed payments to a tanning salon, nail spa, liquor stores, DirecTV bill with premium charges, and $1,700.00 in retail purchases from The Gap, Old Navy, Home Depot, Sears, etc." Jackson goes on to say "Even if you assume that just half of the current 7.4 million currently delinquent mortgages fit this sort of ’spending profile’ (that is, they are spending their mortgage) and you assume a $1,000 median monthly mortgage payment for most U.S. homeowners — you get a $3.7 billion boost per month to consumer spending. It’s certainly enough spending to matter in the overall scheme of things." I find this truly scary, but I do believe that this is happening. In fact, I think this behavioral trend will become even more common as housing prices continue decline leaving more and more homeowners (I use that term loosely since until you have more equity than you have debt on your home the bank "owns" more of the home than you do) in position where they owe more than their homes are worth (i.e. underwater or negative equity). Frankly, I think this behavior is the result of a rather logical decision making process. If you were an underwater homeowner who owned a home and you had a choice between paying your mortgage (when you know you will never see that money again) and buying goods and services that you can enjoy now, what would you do? This is all a matter of economics and mathematics and in that vane paying for a declining asset (i.e. the home) makes no sense. As a result of this you can bet that foreclosures and short sales will continue to occur at high levels for the next several years.

Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Homeowners and Property Owners in Nashville TN and Middle TN. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee homeowner, property owner, condo owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, condo owners, owners of high end homes and properties (estate homes, luxury homes and executive homes), real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Robertson County TN, Maury County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Spring Hill TN, Gallatin TN, Springfield TN and Mt. Juliet TN).  If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR, Real Estate Expert and Real Estate Investor.

Foreclosures Continue to Increase

Foreclosures Continue to Increase

According to this Diana Olick article on CNBC.com, Foreclosures Are Rising, foreclosures continue to increase (i.e. more properties are going to foreclosure auctions) due to the failure of the various loan modification programs (many borrowers do not end up qualifying for permanent modifications and many borrowers default on modifications even if they are granted) and the huge backlog of seriously delinquent loans (over 5 million), which are now making their way toward becoming foreclosures. Basically, foreclosures are going to remain extremely high for the next few years, and, as a result, seriously stress the banks' asset managers. Therefore, the banks are going to need to liquidate their excess non-performing assets via short sales.

Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Real Estate Investors, Home Builders and Developers in Nashville TN and Middle TN. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee real estate investor, home builder, condo developer or real estate developer who cannot pay the property/project mortgage payments (due to the poor economy, adverse financing conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), have already defaulted on the mortgage, or are already in foreclosure, or owe more than the property/project is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/project). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Springfield TN, Gallatin TN and Mt. Juliet TN). If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR, Real Estate Expert and Real Estate Investor.

Short Sales Will Increase

Short Sales Will Increase

According to this Diana Olick CNBC article, Let the Short Sales Begin, the Obama Administration's Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Plan (aka HAFA) (effective April 5, 2010), which is offering financial "incentives to borrowers, servicers, investors and second lien holders" to encourage short sales, plus the coming wave of foreclosures (shadow foreclosures, Option ARM and related foreclosures) will result in a substantial increase in the number of short sales. I absolutely agree. The question is whether the increase will be enough. The article goes on to state that the "Administration increased the incentives such as "doubling the amount of cash to $3000 offered as borrower "relocation expenses" and juicing the payoffs to the others as well. Of course they want to push short sales because of course they know that their modification program isn't working as planned." That is no surprise. Very few people I talk to are granted loan modifications and even the ones that are know that the loan modification it is a band-aid, not a solution.

Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Real Estate Investors, Home Builders and Developers in Nashville TN and Middle TN. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee real estate investor, home builder, condo developer or real estate developer who cannot pay the property/project mortgage payments (due to the poor economy, adverse financing conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), have already defaulted on the mortgage, or are already in foreclosure, or owe more than the property/project is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/project). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Springfield TN, Gallatin TN and Mt. Juliet TN). If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR, Real Estate Expert and Real Estate Investor.

White House Admits Housing Will Not Recover Anytime Soon

White House Admits Housing Will Not Recover Anytime Soon

I read this Economy Watch article about the March 2010 US Unemployment Rate in which the White House basically admits (at least in a round about way) that the US housing market cannot rebound to anywhere near peak 2005-2007 (depending on the market) price levels until at least 2017. The article doesn't actually say this, but it states "The White House does not expect the rate to return to its healthy-economy level of 5 percent until at least 2017." Based on the fact that a healthy (i.e. low) unemployment rate is required to drive housing (employment has long been one of the major drivers of housing), one can only logically conclude that housing prices cannot improve to peak levels until unemployment also does the same. Therefore, the White House's 2017 "healthy-economy" unemployment rate prediction is also basically a prediction for the housing market as well. Given that political predictions usually appear to be "spun" for political gain I a guessing that 2017 is an optimistic estimate.

There are those like myself that remain "bearish" on the economy for the next several years. However, despite this many people are still "bullish" on the US economy due to the "economy always having bounced back." Unfortunately, I believe that this time is different (in a bad way) due to the following:

• Absurdly high levels of private and public debt that is near peak levels.
• Ill advised government deficit spending that is only adding to the already enormous debt. Think healthcare (aka Obamacare), Cap and Trade (aka Cap and Tax), etc.
• The US's rapid movement toward socialism.
• Unlike previous recessions, US manufacturing is basically dead and not likely to come back.

The issues above (i.e. combination of the huge debt, accelerated deficit spending and movement to socialism) will result in the US government having to hike taxes significantly, which will in turn reduce the incentive and ability to earn a profit so businesses will hire less workers, fewer business will be started, fewer businesses will be expanded and more businesses will close or merge resulting in less jobs.

I think many people will be "surprised" and "shocked" when all of this ends badly. They will then be "uncertain" about the future, etc. However, my view is that the near future (unforseen natural disasters, etc. aside) is little more than a small extension of the past and present, and, as a result is already set to a large degree based on the events and actions in the past and recent past. Given that I am reasonably sure that the short term future is very dim for the US economy, housing and more. As a result there will be many more foreclosures and short sales over the next 5-10 years.

Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance for Real Estate Investors, Home Builders and Developers in Nashville TN and Middle TN. If you are a Nashville Tennessee, Franklin Tennessee, Brentwood Tennessee, Nolensville Tennessee, Spring Hill Tennessee, Murfreesboro Tennessee, Smyrna Tennessee, La Vergne Tennessee, or Middle Tennessee real estate investor, home builder, condo developer or real estate developer who cannot pay the property/project mortgage payments (due to the poor economy, adverse financing conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), have already defaulted on the mortgage, or are already in foreclosure, or owe more than the property/project is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/project). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN, Belle Meade TN, Nolensville TN, Springfield TN, Gallatin TN and Mt. Juliet TN). If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Nashville TN Banks Hurting

Nashville TN Banks Hurting

According to the information contained in these articles (Nashville Public Radio: Pinnacle Backtracks, Saves TARP Funds for Rainier Day and Associated Press: Synovus downgraded on capital, regulation worries.), two Nashville Tennessee area banks are in financial trouble: Pinnacle Financial and the Bank of Nashville (a Synovus company).  According to the ProPublica Financial Institution Bailout Recipient List, both banks/financial institutions received TARP (government bailout) monies with Pinnacle Financial receiving $95M and Synovus receiving almost $968M.  Ongoing credit deterioration was cited as the main reason for the financial trouble.  In short, these lenders made loans that are now going bad.  According to the Nashville Public Radio article, Pinnacle Financial intended on paying back their TARP money, but changed plans after economists told Pinnacle CEO Terry Turner that conditions will get worse before they get better. As a result Pinnacle now needs the TARP capital to prepare for the worsening economy. The article quotes Turner as saying "We’re not in a position where we’re going to see a steady climb out of the economy but instead may see further deterioration, maybe even worse than what we’ve seen thus far." According to the article, "Dragging down Pinnacle’s balance sheet is a growing number of bad loans. For the third quarter, Pinnacle had nearly four times the number of bad loans compared to the same period last year." The Associated Press article stated that shares of Synovus Financial Corp. (parent company of the Bank of Nashville) are now trading at near 17 year lows. While this news is definitely not good, it should be expected. Almost all banks are in poor financial condition with most being insolvent. Only government bailouts and FASB accounting rule changes are allowing many banks to survive (think "zombie banks"). There will definitely be more foreclosures and short sales at these banks (and at all banks) in the near future.

If you are a Middle TN homeowner, property owner, real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay your mortgage payments (due to losing your job, having your income reduced, illness, health problems, adverse business conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), know that you will not be able to pay your mortgage, have defaulted on your mortgage, are already in foreclosure, or owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification and a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/home). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (homeowners, property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in and around Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN).  If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Nashville Developer Faces Foreclosure

Nashville Developer Faces Foreclosure

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, Bank forecloses on property for Crosland's Griffin Plaza, Crosland, Inc.'s Griffin Plaza property (a 280,000 square-foot mixed-use development) in Downtown Nashville TN (in the Gulch area) is being foreclosed on by Carolina First Bank. The trustee auction sale is scheduled to take place on 11/30/2009 at 11:00 AM in front of the main entrance to the Sommet Center. This news comes only about a week after I posted my article, Terrazzo in Nashville Gulch to Auction Condo Units Due to Slow Sales, in which I predicted that the developer of the Terrazzo (also Crosland) would face foreclosure on that project. Now, I am almost certain that foreclosure will occur. It is clear that many other Nashville Tennessee and Middle Tennessee developers will go bankrupt and/or face foreclosure. The worst is yet to come.

If you are a Middle TN real estate investor, home builder or real estate developer who cannot pay the property/project mortgage payments (due to the poor economy, adverse financing conditions, slow sales, loss of investment property tenants, vacancy issues, lack of funds to complete the project, feuding business partners, etc.), have already defaulted on the mortgage, or are already in foreclosure, or owe more than the property/project is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a short sale (a real estate short sale occurs when the sale proceeds are not sufficient to pay off all the mortgages and liens on the property/project). I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I primarily help sellers (property owners, real estate investors, home builders and real estate developers) of distressed real estate, short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures, investment properties, failed new construction projects and struggling commercial real estate developments located in and around Middle Tennessee (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN).  If you do need to short sell your home or property, or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request short sale and foreclosure help and assistance on my website at Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

Terrazzo to Auction Condo Units Due to Slow Sales

Terrazzo in Nashville Gulch to Auction Condo Units Due to Slow Sales

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, Terrazzo to slash prices, auction condos, Crosland, the developers the Terrazzo, a $68 million 117 unit luxury high rise condo project in the Gulch section of downtown Nashville Tennessee, will auction off up to 30 units at 1:00 PM CST on November 21st at the Renaissance Hotel. According to the article, sluggish sales are the reason that the developer opted to auction off some condo units.

The article quotes Bill Barkley, president of Crosland's Tennessee division (the developer of the Terrazzo) as saying that the auction "offers Terrazzo the opportunity to sell a significant number of condominium homes and instantly build the growing community at Terrazzo — all in a single day."  The article goes on to state the following terms and conditions of the Terrazzo auction:

• "Minimum offering bids will range between 40 percent and 50 percent of list price. Minimum bids for one-bedroom units will range between $159,000 and $225,000, two-bedroom units will start between $250,000 and $310,000, and three-bedroom units will start at $399,000. Bids will include one parking space in the mixed-use building’s underground garage."
• "Interested buyers are required to register and preview the units before bidding. According to the Terrazzo’s Web site, bidders will need to come prepared with a cashier’s check or money order for $5,000 and a blank personal check, which will be added to the $5,000 to equal 5 percent of the winning bid price."

I would like to say a couple of things about this auction:

• The minimum bid prices are still too high.  This will result in very light bidding.
• Overall, I do not think many units will sell at these prices. See my previous blog post, Birmingham Auction Ended Abruptly After Too Many "Low Bids", for the results of a condo auction in Birmingham Alabama. The highest bids at that auction were only about one-third of the original list prices.
• According to the City Federal Condos (the Birmingham condo project mentioned above) website, the developer is now trying to sell the condo units that fetched $80,000 at the auction for $139,000.  My guess is that this project will be bankrupt in less than 12 months.
• Even if the developers do sell some some units at 50% of the original list prices, what happens to the people who already purchased condos before the price drop?  If they have to sell due to a job loss, job relocation, illness, or other reason, they will lose over $100,000, or be forced to short sale their condos.
• Based on the above information, I think that the Terrazzo will end up being auctioned off by the lenders who financed the project.  Until the developers accept the fact that there is only a limited number of high income young people and wealthy "empty nesters" they will never price their condo units where the overwhelming majority of the market is.  It seems like the developers are still in denial.

If you are a home buyer or real estate investor in Middle Tennessee who is interested in purchasing a Fannie Mae foreclosure, a Freddie Mac foreclosure, another foreclosure, REO, short sale, auction home, or other distressed real estate in order to get a great home or investment property at a low price, please contact me, or visit my website Search the Middle Tennessee MLS - Find Middle TN Short Sales, Pre-foreclosures, Foreclosures & REO's so that you can find foreclosures, short sales and other distressed real estate and homes in Middle TN. I help home buyers in Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN.

Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Distressed Real Estate, Short Sale, Pre-foreclosure and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert

Get Short Sale and Foreclosure Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Distressed Real Estate, Short Sale, Pre-foreclosure and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert

Property Owners and Homeowners in Middle Tennessee: (Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN) - Get Expert Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Distressed Real Estate, Short Sale, Pre-foreclosure and Foreclosure REALTOR, Real Estate Expert & Real Estate Professional

• Lost your job, or suffered a reduction in your income?
• Suffering from an illness, or medical condition that has limited your ability to work or earn income?
• Need your monthly mortgage payments lowered via a loan modification in order to be able to keep your home?
• Can't afford your mortgage payments even if the payment is lowered?
• Received a Notice of Default (Foreclosure Letter) from your lender, or their attorney?
• Home worth less than your current mortgage balance(s)?

If one or more of the above situations apply to you then you need to get help from a Short Sale, Pre-foreclosure and Foreclosure REALTOR & Real Estate Professional who can help you avoid Foreclosure, sell your home via a Short Sale, or even get a Loan Modification.


A Loan Modification may help you keep your home and should be considered. However, many lenders seem unwilling to grant modifications for a number of reasons including that most loan modifications fail. If you cannot get a loan modification, or your home is worth less than the mortgage balance(s), or you just can't afford to keep your home then a Short Sale may be your best option as it could salvage what is left of your credit and to reduce the risk of the lender pursuing you for their net loss (deficiency judgment). Acting quickly will give you the greatest chance of getting your life back without all the stress and worry. For immediate help please contact Jim McCormack now!*


Foreclosure and Short Sale Help and Assistance Hotline
(615) 653-4383

*Jim McCormack is a REALTOR, not an attorney. You should consult an attorney before making any real estate decisions.

If you would like more information first, please let me introduce myself. My name is James W. McCormack. I am a Short Sale, Pre-foreclosure and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert. I am a 10+ year real estate sales veteran and full-time real estate professional who specializes in helping property owners (homeowners, real estate investors, real estate developers and home builders) in Middle TN who have defaulted in their mortgage payments, are in foreclosure, and/or who need expert help and assistance with a real estate short sale (i.e. where the property value is worth less than the mortgage debt). I focus on short sales, pre-foreclosures, foreclosures and investment properties in the Middle Tennessee TN market with my primary focus being on Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN. My website helps you to search for and find short sale listings, pre-foreclosure listings and foreclosure listings in Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Belle Meade TN and Nashville TN.

If you are a property owner or homeowner in Middle Tennessee who cannot pay your mortgage (due to job loss, income reduction, illness, health problems, etc.), or your home is already in foreclosure, or you owe more than your home is worth, please contact me to discuss your options including a loan modification or a short sale. I am a Middle Tennessee distressed real estate, short sale, pre-foreclosure (preforeclosure) and foreclosure REALTOR and Expert. I serve real estate owners, homeowners and investment property owners in Rutherford County TN, Williamson County TN, Davidson County TN, Murfreesboro TN, Smyrna TN, La Vergne TN, Eagleville TN, Lascassas TN, Rockvale TN, Christiana TN, Brentwood TN, Franklin TN, Nashville TN and Belle Meade TN. If you do need to short sell your home (sell even though you owe more than your home is worth), or you need a quick sale due to being in foreclosure, you can request help and assistance on my website at Get Help and Assistance from a Middle Tennessee Short Sale and Foreclosure REALTOR and Real Estate Expert.

I am a real estate expert who is here to help you. Please call me at 615-653-4383 to discuss your real estate situation or problems. I almost always return phone calls by the next business day.I provide the following real estate services:
Specialty and Challenging Real Estate (Sales, Consulting & Leasing):

1. Physically Distressed Properties (i.e. fixer uppers, rehab properties, handyman specials, etc.).
2. Foreclosures.
3. Pre-foreclosures (i.e. Notice of Default, etc.).
4. Short Sales (i.e. where the sale price is not enough to pay off the mortgage(s) and other liens.).
5. Bank Owned Real Estate (i.e. REO's).
6. Divorce Sales.
7. Estate Sales.
8. Abandoned and Vacant Properties.
9. Rental Homes and Properties (Leasing and Consulting).
10. Lease Option/Lease Purchase Homes (Sales, Leasing & Consulting).
11. Other Difficult Situations.

Commercial and Investment Real Estate (Sales & Leasing):

1. Small Multifamily Properties (2-4 units).
2. Apartment Buildings (5+ units).

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Find Short Sales, Pre-foreclosures, Foreclosures, REO's, Bank Owned Properties, Fixer Uppers & Other Distressed Real Estate

Nashville Business Journal: Greater Nashville unemployment hits 9.8%

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, Greater Nashville unemployment hits 9.8%, the Nashville Tennessee Metropolitan Unemployment Rate reached 9.8% in August 2009, which is up from 9.6% in July 2009. The article noted the following unemployment statistics for the following counties in the greater Nashville TN area:

• Davidson County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate increased to 9.6% in August 2009, which is up from 9.2% in July 2009.
• Williamson County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% in August 2009, which is down from 8.3% in July 2009.
• Rutherford County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate decreased to 10.1% in August 2009, which is down from 10.2% in July 2009.
• Wilson County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate increased to 9.5% in August 2009, which is up from 9.1% in July 2009.
• Sumner County TN Unemployment - The unemployment rate increased to 10.3% in August 2009, which is up from 9.9% in July 2009.

The article goes on to state that according to the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, across Tennessee unemployment increased in 47 counties, decreased in 42 counties and stayed the same in 6 counties.  Overall, the August 2009 unemployment rate in Tennessee was 10.8%, which is over a full percentage point higher than the US national unemployment rate at 9.7%.

Given that most of the counties in the greater Nashville Tennessee metropolitan area have unemployment rates of over 9%, with Rutherford County TN and Sumner County TN posting unemployment rates over 10%, there is no way that housing prices will increase.  Also, there will continue to be high rates of foreclosures and short sales in Middle Tennessee.

Forecast Predicts Nashville Job Market Will Recover in 2012

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, Nashville predicted to recover in 2012, the Nashville metropolitan job market will return to pre-recession job levels in 2012 along with Memphis, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New Orleans, New York City, Boston and 12 other metropolitan areas. According to the article Austin and San Antonio in Texas will recover in 2010 and Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston and 6 other metropolitan areas will recover in 2011.

While all this sounds good, I am reasonably certain that it is not correct if by "pre-recession job levels" they are referring to the 4.5-5.5% unemployment rates that were the norm from 2004-2006. Those unemployment levels would certainly be welcome given that we now live in the era of 10%+ unemployment levels (10.8% for the state of TN in August 2009 according to the Tennessee Commissioner of Labor & Workforce Development James Neeley). Unfortunately, I cannot see how that can happen. The low unemployment rates of 2004-2006 were 70%+/- fueled by consumer spending that enabled businesses to sell products and services and, therefore, hire more employees. That consumer spending was enabled by cheap and easy to obtain debt (think HELOC's, credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, etc.). That debt is now largely gone, or at least significantly reduced.

Therefore, my problem with this article's rosy "pre-recession job levels" prediction is that it does not make sense. How can we return to "pre-recession job levels" if the consumer spending that created that low unemployment no longer exists? The answer is we can't and job levels will not return to "pre-recession job levels" for many, many years. I predict that unemployment rates will drop (i.e. the job market will improve), but the unemployment rates will stabilize at around 6.0-8.0%.

This will all negatively impact housing prices and ensure that foreclosures and short sales remain at relatively high levels for the next several years even after the job market recovers. Simply put, less people will be employed and, as a result, there will be less home buyers.

98 of the Top 100 Metropolitan Areas Lost Jobs Over the Period of June 2008 to June 2009

According to this Nashville Business Journal article, 98 of top 100 metros suffer job losses, almost all major metropolitan areas lost jobs over the period of June 2008 to June 2009. New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago where the hardest hit with over 200,000 jobs lost. Atlanta, Detroit and Phoenix each lost over 100,000 jobs. The Nashville Metropolitan area (generally Nashville, Davidson County, Williamson County (Franklin and Brentwood) and Rutherford County (Murfreesboro and Smyrna) was in the middle of the pack with 32,800 jobs lost. All of this means more unemployed people with a result of more delinquencies, foreclosures (REO's) and short sales. the effect of this will be continued dampening of the real estate market.