TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Rise

According to this TransUnion News Release, TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Rise - But Pace Is Slowing, mortgage delinquencies (the % of borrowers that are 60 or more days past due) increased for the 10th straight quarter reaching an all-time high national average of 5.81% for the 2nd quarter of 2009, which is an 11.3% increase over the 1st quarter's national average of 5.22%. The news release goes on to say that the "good news" is that this increase is less than the almost 16% that occurred from the 4th quarter of 2009 to the 1st quarter of 2009. Of course the news release goes on to state that year over year mortgage loan delinquencies increased a staggering 65%.

The Analysis section of the release reads "In its first quarter analysis, TransUnion reported a potential positive sign in mortgage delinquency rate trends. For the first time since the recession began at the end of 2007, the quarter-to-quarter growth rate for national mortgage delinquency showed a decrease," said FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services division. "Now, with the release of second quarter results, we see even more deceleration in mortgage delinquency, an indication that the mortgage market is beginning to stabilize." "There are several complementary economic statistics at the national level to support this guarded optimism, such as the increase in consumer confidence in the second quarter. As for the labor market, although unemployment had continued to rise through the second quarter, July figures for unemployment insurance were lower than expected. Furthermore, recent figures from the government show the unemployment rate actually dipping to 9.4 percent nationally in July. These encouraging economic signs, coupled with a decrease in the rate of mortgage delinquency growth, suggest that we may have seen the worst of the recession. This is particularly noteworthy, in that delinquency statistics are generally lagging indicators of the economic environment," continued Guarrera.

The news release continues by stating that they project that the average mortgage loan delinquency rate will peak at just under 7% by the end of the year. The release goes on by stating However, due to a continued downward trend in housing prices throughout the year as well as high unemployment levels, TransUnion does not see national delinquency rates beginning to fall until the first half of 2010.

Frankly, I find TransUnion's rosy views comical. First, unemployment only fell to 9.4% in July due to nearly 500,000 being removed from the unemployment figures not because they found a job, but because they UNEMPLOYED TOO LONG! Also, there is no way that the mortgage loan delinquencies have turned a corner. With unemployment continuing to rise, increasing numbers of homeowners owing more than their homes are worth (i.e. underwater homeowners) and the wave of ARM mortgages coming due in May 2010 you can absolutely bank on increasing foreclosures and short sales. There is just no way around it. The bottom is something we have yet to see.